Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Following the departures of Adriano Moke & Hayden Lindley, Darlington have scope to bring in one, possibly two, centre midfielders over the summer.

The below will consider targets that could become available to the Quakers this summer, taking in to consideration the ‘3 A principles’: ability, availability & affordability.

In addition, targets have been identified based on which qualities & attributes could be added to the squad in order to compliment the existing personnel of Tom Platt, Will Hatfield & Ben Liddle. Targets have been split in to two different categories based on their profiles:

The ‘6’ Controllers:

Following the departure of Hayden Lindley, Darlington only have one ‘controlling’ midfielder in the squad: Tom Platt, with Will Hatfield & Ben Liddle adopting more attacking responsibility further up the pitch.

3 targets have been identified below that would add depth & versatility to the squad in the holding midfielder role:

Option 1: Sam Fielding (Spennymoor Town):

Sam Fielding has struggled for minutes at Spennymoor Town this season, playing just 38% of available league minutes since his switch from Bradford Park Avenue in the summer of 2023. Good quality midfielders like Matty Dolan & Callum Ross have kept him out of the side and, as a result, Fielding joined NPL side Hyde United on loan in March for the remainder of the 23/24 season.

However, as proven by his time at BPA during the 22/23 season, Fielding is a good quality midfielder at this level in his own right.

The 6’2 centre midfielder is best deployed sitting as a holding midfielder, with the added versatility of being able to play centre-back or full-back if required.

During the 22/23 season, Fielding ranked in the top third of NLN centre midfielders for defensive duels won (64.84%), aerial duels won (51.55%) & interceptions per 90 (7.26), all of which are key attributes required for a holding midfielder at NLN level.

Fielding is also a very effective progressive passer of the ball, ranking in the top third of NLN centre midfielders for progressive passes per 90 (10.25) & accurate progressive passes per 90 (70.07%).

Fielding is also known to current manager Steve Watson, who signed the former Salford player in the summer of 2021 for his York City side.

Only 25, out of contract in the summer and with scope to improve, Fielding would add depth & versatility to the Quakers’ central midfield.

Option 2: Elliott Forbes (Blyth Spartans):

Elliott Forbes joined Blyth Spartans on loan from Gateshead in August 2023, before making the move to Croft Park permanent in January 2024 upon expiration of his contract at the Gateshead International Stadium.

The 24-year old has made 40 league appearances for Spartans this season, scoring 1 goal & registering 3 assists from a holding midfield role. Forbes has also filled in at centre-back when required.

Forbes ranks within the top 30% of NLN centre midfielders for defensive duels won (67.65%), successful pass completion (78.78%) & within the top 50% of NLN centre midfielders for successful defensive actions per 90 (8.96) & accurate forward pass completion (62.69%).

At just 24, out of contract in the summer & with the potential to improve further, Forbes would add depth to the defensive aspect of the Quakers’ midfield.

Option 3: Paddy McLaughlin (York City):

Paddy McLaughlin is out of contract at York City this summer.

Although the 33-year old has made 41 appearances for York this season, a significant proportion of these appearances have been made from the bench.

McLaughin is effective in both progressing the ball from midfield (62.8% forward pass completion) & in defensive duels (66.2% success rate).

As McLaughin has aged slightly, he has dropped a little deeper in midfield to a holding role and – on occasions – has played left-back. However, during York City’s 21/22 NLN campaign, McLaughlin was deployed slightly more advanced in a LCM role, registering 5 goals and 2 assists in 3,391 minutes.

McLaughlin is also known to Steve Watson; Watson signed McLaughlin from Hartlepool for his York City side in January 2019 and he worked with the midfielder up to the manager’s departure from the LNER Stadium in November 2021.

At 33, out of contract this summer and known to manager Steve Watson, McLaughlin would offer the Quakers a significant amount of experience and some versatility heading in to the 24/25 campaign.

The ‘8’ & ’10’ Attackers:

The first half of this article has focused on defensive-minded players that would compete for the holding-midfield role with Tom Platt, or offer the Quakers the opportunity to play with two-holding midfielders in situations that require a more defensive approach.

Following the departure of Adriano Moke, the second half of this article will focus on centre midfielders that would offer Darlington more of a threat going forward in terms of goal-scoring & creative threat:

Option 1: Will McGowan (Blyth Spartans):

Will McGowan made my 23/24 ‘Top 10 NLN Players to Keep an Eye On’ article back in August 2023, and the former Doncaster-youth player has delivered this season, scoring 6 goals & registering 7 assists from midfield at Croft Park since his summer move from South Shields.

McGowan has played a range of midfield roles for Blyth this season: he has been deployed as a holding midfielder, box-to-box, as a creative number ’10’ or out-wide. This makes direct comparisons to other players very difficult, due to the varying nature of positions McGowan has taken up.

However, what stands out with Will McGowan is his ability to offer both a goal-scoring & creative threat from whichever position he is deployed in. As mentioned above, McGowan has scored 6 goals & registered 7 assists this season from midfield.

McGowan is also an effective dribbler of the ball, completing 52.2% of his dribbles, and – as a result – draws fouls from the opposition that gets his Blyth side up the pitch and set-pieces in dangerous areas.

McGowan is also a very effective passer of the ball, with a 85.4% pass completion rate, which is excellent given how advanced he is deployed up the pitch.

Despite being small in stature, McGowan is also effective defensively in a deeper role, winning 61.4% of his defensive duels.

Only 21, offering versatility in a number of positions, effective in ball-carrying, drawing fouls, creating and goal-scoring from midfield, Will McGowan is one that the Quakers should be all in for this summer.

Option 2: Lirak Hasani (Gateshead FC):

Lirak Hasani’s contract with Gateshead expires this summer.

The 21-year old started the 23/24 season on loan at South Shields, before being recalled by Gateshead in January 2024. Hasani made 5 appearances at the GIS before then joining Blyth Spartans on loan in March 2024.

Hasani has made 29 appearances at NLN level between South Shields & Gateshead, largely operating in an advanced LCM role. During these appearances, Hasani has registered 2 goals & 2 assists, which is a good return considering his limited minutes (2,158) spent on the pitch.

Across these minutes, Hasani accrued an Expected Assists figure (xA) of 3.81, indicating that he has created more chances than his actual assists figure of just 2 suggests.

Hasani is also an effective passer, successfully completing 81.8% of his passes, which – like Will McGowan – is impressive given how advanced he plays up the pitch. Hasani also completes 66.7% of his dribbles, also proving that he is effective in carrying the ball.

Only 21, able to offer a modest goal-scoring threat & a very good creative-threat, Hasani would represent a good opportunity for the Quakers this summer to add attacking & creative depth to their ranks in the centre of the pitch.

Option 3: Olly Dyson (York City):

Darlington were strongly rumoured to have been close to signing Olly Dyson on loan from York City in January 2024, before the 24-year old opted to join Scarborough Athletic.

Dyson is known to manager Steve Watson, who signed him for his York City side in September 2020.

During his 1,189 minutes on the Yorkshire coast, Dyson has scored 1 goal and accrued an xA figure of 1.63, demonstrating his creative ability. This is more impressive when you consider that a significant proportion of his minutes have been spent at right-back and not in his best advanced-midfield role.

Dyson is under contract at the LNER Stadium until 2025, however the fact that York City permitted his loan switch to the Flamingo Land Stadium in January and then agreed to a further extension in February suggests that Dyson may become available again following the expiration of his loan deal at Scarborough.

Goalkeeper: George Sykes-Kenworthy (Bradford Park Avenue):

I know what you are thinking: George Sykes-Kenworthy isn’t a National League North goalkeeper, and you are correct.

But, he will be soon, if not playing at a higher standard.

Sykes-Kenworthy is only 23, and he saved his Bradford Park Avenue side, on average, 0.20 goals per 90 across the 2022/2023 campaign, sitting in the top 15% of goalkeepers for this metric.

Sykes-Kenworthy is also an effective sweeper-keeper, exiting the penalty box 2.62 times per 90, which sits in the top 10% of NLN goalkeepers.

Despite facing a significant volume of shots per 90 (4.47) & a very high Expected Goals Against figure of 1.50 xGA per 90, Sykes-Kenworthy was still able to boast an above average save percentage stat of 70.89%.

In addition, Sykes-Kenworthy is also proficient in the commanding of his area on a regular basis at 0.99 aerial duels per 90 (sitting within the top 15% of NLN goalkeepers) and does so successfully at an above average completion rate (91.49%).

At just 23, Sykes-Kenworthy has plenty of time to improve his goalkeeping skills & he will certainly not be playing Northern Premier League football for long.

Right Back: Keenan Quansah (Southport FC):

Not many full-backs are as defensively solid as Keenan Quansah who plays for Southport.

Quansah sits within the top 15% of National League full-backs for:

Successful Defensive Actions per 90 (11.11)

Defensive Duels Won (69.39%)

Aerial Duels Won (62.14%)

Possession Adjusted Interceptions per 90 (8.86)

Whilst Quansah is not the strongest of full-backs for creating chances, he offers Southport huge defensive solidity. Signed from Stalybridge in June 2022, and having just turned 26, Quansah will be hoping to have a big impact this season and continue his career trajectory upwards.

Centre Back: Ben Pollock (Spennymoor Town):

During the summer, Spennymoor Town added centre-back Ben Pollock to their ranks, with the 25-year old signing on a free transfer from Boston United.

Pollock sits above your average National League North centre-back in the following areas:

Successful Defensive Actions per 90 (10.04)

Defensive Duels Won (70.61%)

Aerial Duels Won (58.20%)

Possession Adjusted Interceptions per 90 (8.07)

Progressive Passes per 90 (8.30) & Accurate Progressive Pass Completion (63.27%).

This data is impressive as Pollock is largely competing with centre-backs that are much more experienced than the 25-year old, who are currently sitting within their peak years. Pollock is certainly an upgrade on the outgoing Joe Tait.

Centre Midfield: Will McGowan (Blyth Spartans)

Blyth Spartans have recently re-signed Will McGowan from South Shields, with the 20-year old enjoying a successful loan spell at Croft Park during the 21/22 season.

McGowan sits within the top third of National League North central midfielders for:

Successful Defensive Actions per 90 (9.18)

Defensive Duels per 90 (8.13)

Successful Attacking Actions per 90 (2.15)

Offensive Duels per 90 (9.15)

Progressive Passes per 90 (7.43) & Accurate Progressive Pass Completion (71.49%)

McGowan posses the rare ability to be effective in the triad of defence, attack & progressive passing.

At just 20, McGowan is close to reaching the defensive volume levels of the likes of Tom Platt, Alex Purver & Curtis Weston. Pending another successful season at Croft Park, McGowan has huge potential to move up the ladder.

Centre Midfield: Ben Liddle (Darlington FC):

Ben Liddle offers a unique & genuine goal-scoring & creative threat from the centre of the pitch for Darlington.

Liddle sits within the top 15% of National League North central midfielders for:

Expected Goals per 90 (0.15)

Accurate Progressive Pass Completion (76.77%)

Accurate Through Pass Completion (66.67%)

Passes in to the Penalty Area per 90 (2.96)

Key Passes per 90 (0.48)

Assists per 90 (0.21)

Liddle only played 1,702 minutes for Darlington last season out of a possible 4,140. The big test this season will be Liddle extrapolating his excellent performances across what will surely be more minutes for the 24-year old. A big season is coming up for the former Middlesbrough trainee.

Centre Midfielder: Sam Fielding (Spennymoor Town):

I have previously discussed Sam Fielding in previous ‘Sensible Transfers’ editions for the Quakers.

Fielding is somewhat of a deep lying tempo-setter. At just 24-year old, Fielding sits within the top third of National League North centre midfielders for:

Successful Defensive Actions per 90 (9.34)

Aerial Duels Won (51.55%)

Possession Adjusted Interceptions per 90 (7.26)

Successful Dribbles (69.44%)

Passes in to Final Third per 90 (11.01)

Through Passes per 90 (1.17)

Progressive Passes per 90 (10.25) & Progressive Pass Completion (70.07%)

Fielding, who has recently played for Salford City & York City, will offer Spennymoor Town an aerial presence within the middle of the pitch, with the passing qualities similar to that of Phil Turnbull.

Right Winger: Luca Colville (Scarborough Athletic)

Losing Kieran Glynn to Fylde was a blow for the Seadogs, but one player who could replace the creative void left behind 24-year old Luca Colville.

Colville is brilliantly creative, and sits within the top 5% of NLN wingers for Expected Assists per 90 (0.23) & Secondary Assists per 90 (0.19), demonstrating effective creative play in attacking build-up.

Within the 21/22 season, Colville scored 5 goals from an xG of 2.78. This is quite an overperformance, which is a positive in the sense that it demonstrates clinical finishing, however Scarborough fans will be wanting to see Colville get himself in more promising shooting positions next season.

Left Winger: Carlton Ubaezuono (Chorley FC):

Ubaezuono has big boots to fill replacing Jonathan Ustabasi on the left hand-side for Chorley next season, with the Turk choosing to join AFC Fylde over the summer.

However, the 25-year old – impressively – managed to consistently fashion chances for himself in a poor Farsley Celtic side that narrowly avoided relegation, generating an xG of 0.23 per 90, well above the average of 0.14.

Ubaezuono scored 5 goals from an xG metric of 6.33 in just 2,499 minutes last season. Whilst this underperformance is disappointing for the South African, if he can sharpen his finishing skills, there is no reason why Ubaezuono can’t score double figures for Chorley next season and replace Ustabasi’s goal-scoring threat.

Centre-Forward: Lewis McNall (Blyth Spartans):

Lewis McNall enjoyed a fantastic start to the 22/23 season with Blyth Spartans.

The 24-year old scored 4 goals in just 664 minutes of action, before a serious knee injury cruelly curtailed his season.

McNall also scored 6 goals in just 1,370 minutes for Blyth during the 21/22 season, before – again – his campaign was cut short with injury.

The quality is clearly there for the Newcastle United Academy graduate. McNall has scored 10 non-penalty goals in little over 2,000 league minutes. The biggest question is whether McNall can recover from two serious knee injuries and perform to his potential once he returns for the Spartans next season.

Centre-Forward: Ethan Freemantle (Gloucester City)

Ethan Freemantle has moved on loan to Gloucester City from Kidderminster Harriers on an initial 3-month basis.

The 23-year old scored 6 goals in just 1,573 minutes for the Harriers last season, demonstrating that when Freemantle was given his chance, he found the net.

Freemantle scored 6 goals from an xG of 5.87, demonstrating that his 6 goals scored were no coincidence, Freemantle was consistently able to get himself in goal scoring positions as a centre-forward.

However, it is not just his goal-scoring prowess that catches the eye. Freemantle is effective in defensive duels, winning 68.33% of his duels. Freemantle is also a keen & successful dribbler of the ball, carrying out & successfully completing above average dribbles per 90.

The 2021-2022 season.

The first season since 2018-2019 not impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic.

There were full crowds.

And no (questionably) distributed grant funding by the National League to massage the Profit & Loss accounts of member clubs.

Most financial set of accounts for 21/22 were released at the end of February/March 2023, as most accounting periods for clubs ended on 31 May or 30 June 2022.

However, a number of clubs applied to extend the usual 9 month period they have to file their accounts within, such as York City, Yeovil Town & Solihull Moors.

These accounts should paint a fairer reflection of the state of National League clubs’ finances compared to recent seasons (19/20 & 20/21) given those seasons were impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic that comprised of reduced crowds, grant funding, the furlough scheme, Sport England/Bounce Back loans and partially completed seasons.

And paint a fairer reflection they do indeed:

• Total losses across the 3 leagues have accumulated £20.2 million.
• These losses of £20.2m are spread across just 39 clubs, compared to profits of just £1m spread across 12 clubs.
• 62% of clubs are trading insolvent with liabilities (debt) greater than assets.
• 7% of clubs haven’t filed their accounts on time with Companies House.
• NLS clubs are fairing – financially – better than NLN clubs, with 44% of NLS clubs making a profit in 21/22, compared to 19% of NLN clubs.

It is important to note that the above figures are based on 51 out the 68 National League clubs’ set of accounts, equivalent to 75% of all clubs. There are a further 5 sets of accounts over-due with Companies House (Southend United, AFC Fylde, Farsley Celtic, Ebbsfleet United & Oxford City) with another 12 set of accounts due to be filed, 10 of which should be by the end of June 2023.

During the 21/22 season, 4 out of the National League’s top 7 that year (Stockport County, Wrexham, Notts County & Grimsby) made total losses of £10.4m, demonstrating the sheer amount of finance required to be competitive at the top-end of the National League.

It also shows the complete desperation of some clubs to achieve the promised land of the Football League, where the disparity of levels of funding is estimated to be anywhere between £750k – £1.5 million per season through increased broadcasting funding, league distribution, increased Academy funding & increased attendances.

Halifax Town were the only club in the top 7 during 21/22 to make a profit, (a modest £52k), whilst the accounts of Solihull Moors & Chesterfield are still to be released.

Given the Moors & the Spireites made losses of £1.1m & £2.3m respectively in 20/21, then it is difficult to envisage a scenario where both clubs reduce the levels of losses made by the top 7.

In is indeed telling, that 90% of National League clubs (17/19) made a financial loss in 21/22.

Rather interestingly, there is quite a disparity between the financial health of National League North & National League South clubs. 81% of NLN clubs made a loss in 21/22, compared to 56% in the NLS.

These losses were also – on average – 18% less than those sustained in the NLN.

One hypothesis for this could be the increased amount of travelling expenses clubs in the National League North are having to incur, with the boundaries ever-increasingly shifting south.

After all, Bath to Eastbourne is a lot different than Blyth to Bishop Stortford:

Map of all National League North sides (21/22):

Map of all National League South sides (21/22):

So, what are the National League Board doing about the significant amount of cash being haemorrhaged from steps 5 & 6 of the fabled English footballing pyramid?

The answer – not very much.

The Premier League & EFL have introduced spending caps relative to turnover in the form of Financial Fair Play (FFP) & Salary Cost Management Protocol (SCMP) to limit frivolous spending & club owner’s financing clubs with interest-bearing loans, secured against the assets of the football club.

Indeed, ‘finance’ is only referenced 3 times in the National League handbook, which is a 39-page document outlining the rules of the competition.

FFP and SCMP are not perfect, but they at least offer a clear and consistent financial framework that football clubs must operate under.

Until this is addressed at National League level, there will be more unsustainable spending, winding-up petitions issued by HMRC, deadlines missed with Companies House & clubs predominately dependent on the success of their owner’s core business, rather than its own performance as a single entity.

The National League Board has – once again – found itself waning.

On the 29th May, Toby Lees became Darlington’s third signing of the summer, with the centre-back turning down a new contract at Blyth Spartans for next season.

The 26-year old centre half, who has amassed 120+ appearances at National League North level with Harrogate Town, Boston United, Gateshead & Blyth, helped the Spartans keep 23 clean sheets in 78 league appearances during his time on the Northumberland Coast.

So what type of centre back are the Quakers getting?

Firstly, Lees exclusively operates as a centre-back, specifically the RCB position:

The data shows that Lees is effective in winning defensive duels, sitting within the top 20% of National League North centre-backs in this metric:

The data also proves Lees to be effective distributing the ball out from defence, registering above average metrics for accurate forward pass completion, accurate long pass completion & accurate progressive passing completion (which Lees also sits within the top 20% centre-backs for).

Standing at 6’1, Lees wins slightly below average aerial duels compared to other National League North centre-backs.

However, Lees is above average for successful defensive actions p90 minutes & possession adjusted interceptions p90 minutes as seen below:

Quakers fans will note Lees’ above average attempts to play passes in to the final third & progressive passes through the pitch, which is he is effective at as per the first graph.

With Jassem Sukar potentially partnering Lees in the LCB position, this may allow the Quakers to build more progressive attacks from centre back on both sides, as opposed to just the left-side:

And……

In summary, the Quakers have obtained a centre back that is effective in defensive duels, interceptions and playing the ball out from the back. The addition of Lees in the RCB role should allow for more progressive attacks/passes to develop from the right-side of defence.

At 26, Lees is entering his peak years as a centre back, meaning there is plenty room for development over the coming seasons with the Quakers.

Darlington’s first signing of the summer is Tom Platt on a free transfer from Boston United, with the 29-year old opting to join the Quakers after being unable to agree new terms with the Pilgrims as they move to a hybrid training model in 23/24.

The below will take a data-driven look at the centre midfielder, analysing whether Platt is an adequate replacement for the man he is replacing – Alex Purver, in addition to a comparison against other centre midfielders in the National League North.

Tom Platt’s heat-map at Boston United during the 22/23 season:

This is very similar to Alex Purver’s, also during the 22/23 season:

Both players operate predominately in the centre of the pitch, rarely furrowing forward, so it should come as no surprise that between the 7,499 minutes shared between both players, only 2 goals were scored & 1 assist registered.

However, it should be noted that getting forward and supporting the attack is not Platt’s game, nor is it Purver’s. Both players are defensively-minded, protecting the back four through interceptions, engaging in duels & attempting to win headers.

To fully appreciate and understand Platt’s style of play, you have to delve-deeper beyond goals & assists, and look at key defensive metrics across the National League North:

As you can see from the above, Platt is well above your median (average) National League North central midfielder for successful defensive actions p90 (sitting in the top 2% of central midfielders in this metric) & engaging in defensive duels p90. He also scores high for successful interceptions (5.63) per 90 minutes – this is within the top 10% of central midfielders at NLN level.

However, don’t be expecting serious progression with the ball, or mazy runs from the centre of this pitch, with Platt ranking below average for progressive passes p90 & dribbles p90.

One significant positive which Platt will bring this Darlington side is additional height. Standing at 6’1, Platt wins above average aerial duels in his position and sits within the top 12% of central midfielders for this metric as seen below:

During 22/23, Platt also won 69% of his defensive duels, this is also above average and sits within the top 10% of central midfielders in this metric at this level.

Replacing Alex Purver could have proved to have been a very difficult task for manager Alun Armstrong. Being able to break up play & disrupting the opposition effectively are difficult qualities to find, however with the signing of Tom Platt, the Quakers appear to have secured a more than adequate replacement for the departing 26-year old with an added bonus of an increased aerial presence in the centre of the pitch.